ICES Database ElectroMagnetic Field Literature Search Engine |
 |
| |
| Home |
| View EMF Studies (Static,ELF) 0-300 Hz |
| View EMF Studies (Intermediate) 300 Hz-300 KHz |
| View EMF Studies (RF/mmW/THz) 300 kHz-300 GHz |
| Advanced Search |
| Citation List (Author Search) |
(Database last updated on Mar 27, 2024)
| ID Number | 2254 | |
| Study Type | Epidemiology | |
| Model | Brain cancer and mobile phone use plus review about controlling the 5G narrative in 2018-2021. | |
| Details | AUTHORS' ABSTRACT: de Vocht et al. 2013 (IEEE #5473):BACKGROUND: There is a public health need to balance timely generation of hypotheses with cautious causal inference. For rare cancers this is particularly challenging because standard epidemiological study designs may not be able to elucidate causal factors in an early period of newly emerging risks. Alternative methodologies need to be considered for generating and shaping hypotheses prior to definitive investigation. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether open-access databases can be used to explore links between potential risk factors and cancers at an ecological level, using the case study of brain and nervous system cancers as an example. METHODS: National age-adjusted cancer incidence rates were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2008 resource and combined with data from the United Nations Development Report and the World Bank list of development indicators. Data were analysed using multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Cancer rates, potential confounders and environmental risk factors were available for 165 of 208 countries. 2008 national incidences of brain and nervous system cancers were associated with continent, gross national income in 2008 and Human Development Index Score. The only exogenous risk factor consistently associated with higher incidence was the penetration rate of mobile/cellular telecommunications subscriptions, although other factors were highlighted. According to these ecological results the latency period is at least 11-12 years, but probably more than 20 years. Missing data on cancer incidence and for other potential risk factors prohibit more detailed investigation of exposure-response associations and/or explore other hypotheses. CONCLUSIONS: Readily available ecological data may be underused, particularly for the study of risk factors for rare diseases and those with long latencies. The results of ecological analyses in general should not be overinterpreted in causal inference, but equally they should not be ignored where alternative signals of aetiology are lacking. AUTHOR'S ABSTRACT: de Vocht 2016 (IEEE #6566): BACKGROUND: Mobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains unclear whether this correlation is coincidental or whether use of mobile phones may cause the development, promotion or progression of specific cancers. The 1985-2014 incidence of selected brain cancer subtypes in England were analyzed and compared to counterfactual 'synthetic control' timeseries. METHODS: Annual 1985-2014 incidence of malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, and malignant neoplasms of the temporal and parietal lobes in England were modelled based on population-level covariates using Bayesian structural time series models assuming 5,10 and 15year minimal latency periods. Post-latency counterfactual 'synthetic England' timeseries were nowcast based on covariate trends. The impact of mobile phone use was inferred from differences between measured and modelled time series. RESULTS: There is no evidence of an increase in malignant glioma, glioblastoma multiforme, or malignant neoplasms of the parietal lobe not predicted in the 'synthetic England' time series. Malignant neoplasms of the temporal lobe however, have increased faster than expected. A latency period of 10years reflected the earliest latency period when this was measurable and related to mobile phone penetration rates, and indicated an additional increase of 35% (95% Credible Interval 9%:59%) during 2005-2014; corresponding to an additional 188 (95%CI 48-324) cases annually. CONCLUSIONS: A causal factor, of which mobile phone use (and possibly other wireless equipment) is in agreement with the hypothesized temporal association, is related to an increased risk of developing malignant neoplasms in the temporal lobe. FROM AUTHOR'S LETTER: de Vocht 2017 (IEEE #6675): The author regrets that, due to a misunderstanding between the author and the data provider, the incorrect data were used for malignant glioma and glioblastoma (multiforme). As a result, the 19852014 trends shown in Fig. 1 and results of the statistical analyses shown in Table 1 and Fig. 2 are incorrect. This had no significant impact on the results of study, the interpretation of the results, or on the conclusions in the paper, which remain unchanged; i.e. there is no evidence of a causal association between mobile phone use and the incidence of malignant glioma and glioblastoma (multiforme). The corrected results are shown in Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 and Table 1 .... |
|
| Findings | No Effects | |
| Status | Completed With Publication | |
| Principal Investigator | University of Bristol, UK | |
| Funding Agency | ????? | |
| Country | UNITED KINGDOM | |
| References |
|
|
| Comments |